TSLABullpending
Michael TylerTarget Range
$430–$450
“A breakout could land Tesla in the 430 to 450 range would be my view.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker sees Tesla as being in a technical coil that could break out to the 430-450 range around the Fed meeting and quad witching, and remains structurally bullish long-term due to Robotaxi and Optimus, targeting $1,000 by the end of next year. However, he warns that if the Iran war does not end, a broader Fed-hike-driven AI trade slowdown could eventually trigger a violent crash for Tesla and the market after an initial rally.
Key arguments
- Tesla has been coiling since its late-July low for 5-6 weeks, which historically precedes a breakout
- Falling Treasury yields after a Fed hike could be short-term positive for Tesla
- Robotaxi and Optimus rollout support a long-term bullish thesis distinct from the AI hardware trade
- Wall Street is rotating away from hardware capex names toward long-term AI winners like Tesla
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If multiple Fed hikes materialize and yields stay elevated, that pressures anything tied to lending/economy including Tesla
- If we enter a recession, Tesla would not be spared
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK
- NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
- Short-term rally is not sustainable
- Earnings growth heavily concentrated in AI-related stocks
- Real economy fundamentals are weaker than headline numbers suggest
- Political pressure on AI sector could impact valuations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 12, 2026
- Timeframe
- after Wednesday Fed meeting heading into quad witching Friday
- Price at prediction
- $365.44
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$61.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price range given but hedged with 'could' and 'would be my view'.
Source
Tesla Stock Will SKYROCKET Next Week... Then Crash.
Said on Sep 12, 2026Open on YouTube ↗