LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$50
Said $5· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“new analyst rating I guess I should say it but um ultimately you do see right here a $5 rating initiated coverage Benchmark Michael”@ 1:10 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishA new $5 price target from Benchmark Michael (buy rating) and large dark pool transactions (14.4M+ shares) drove Lucid up 6.7%. The speaker views the dark pool activity as potentially the PIF buying. Options bulls are targeting $3.50 this week and above $4.50 for earnings week. The submitted Q4 earnings questions are described as the best-ever retail questions focusing on Partnerships, Gravity demand, and the 80/20 revenue strategy.
Key arguments
- $5 price target from Benchmark Michael represents the first near-double signal in years
- Dark pool transactions of 14.4M+ shares suggest institutional/insider accumulation
- Q4 earnings questions on Partnerships, Gravity demand, 80/20 revenue split are substantive and difficult to evade
- Options bulls targeting $4.50+ for earnings week; bulls increasingly active
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Benchmark Michael only has 44% success rating
- Shorts increasing 2.95M shares — doubling down despite the move
The call
- Date said
- Feb 12, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.70
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $9.92
- Return
- -65.4%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $9.92.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $9.92.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.