The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$19.70
Said $1.97· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“1 97 will be a strong support 237 will be that next strong Target SL resistance point”@ 10:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Feb 26, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- expired
- Notes
- No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Despite a triple-beat Q4 earnings (beat on EPS, revenue by $22.71M, and guidance), LCID fell 13.6% as multiple analyst downgrades hit simultaneously: John Murphy downgraded to $1 sell (from bull), Morgan Stanley gave $3 hold, and others initiated coverage with mixed/bearish views. The market focused on Peter Rawlinson's departure and PIF prospectus implying potential share sales. The speaker bought 1,000 shares at $2.50 but admits the stock may need more time to recover.
Key arguments
- John Murphy – former Lucid bull – downgraded to $1 sell, showing key analyst capitulation on keyman risk
- Bank of America holds 8.5M LCID puts, 3.3M common – direct financial interest in the stock going lower
- PIF notarized prospectus allows share sales and raises questions about long-term PIF commitment
- Lucid's Q4 was actually a triple beat (EPS, revenue +$22.71M, guidance) – fundamentals were good, narrative was bad
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst consensus still at $2.64 (17% upside from current levels)
- Q4 confirmed: touring, midsize on schedule; hands-free driving and partnerships coming
- Options market still shows $3 as the bull consensus
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Feb 26, 2025, 9:19 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- expired_without_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
expired without stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-17.07
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before22.55
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-05-27
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeHorizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $19.7. Price: $26.40.
AfterNo stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
- Outcome price
Before26.4
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterExpired without stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterexpired
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.97
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
No stated deadline is recorded. Archived after 12 months without a scored outcome; this is not a missed deadline.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.