LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$19.70
Said $1.97· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“1 97 will be a strong support 237 will be that next strong Target SL resistance point”@ 10:02 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishDespite a triple-beat Q4 earnings (beat on EPS, revenue by $22.71M, and guidance), LCID fell 13.6% as multiple analyst downgrades hit simultaneously: John Murphy downgraded to $1 sell (from bull), Morgan Stanley gave $3 hold, and others initiated coverage with mixed/bearish views. The market focused on Peter Rawlinson's departure and PIF prospectus implying potential share sales. The speaker bought 1,000 shares at $2.50 but admits the stock may need more time to recover.
Key arguments
- John Murphy – former Lucid bull – downgraded to $1 sell, showing key analyst capitulation on keyman risk
- Bank of America holds 8.5M LCID puts, 3.3M common – direct financial interest in the stock going lower
- PIF notarized prospectus allows share sales and raises questions about long-term PIF commitment
- Lucid's Q4 was actually a triple beat (EPS, revenue +$22.71M, guidance) – fundamentals were good, narrative was bad
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst consensus still at $2.64 (17% upside from current levels)
- Q4 confirmed: touring, midsize on schedule; hands-free driving and partnerships coming
- Options market still shows $3 as the bull consensus
The call
- Date said
- Feb 26, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.55
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $26.40
- Return
- -17.1%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $19.7. Price: $26.40.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $19.7. Price: $26.40.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.