LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$22.71
“if Powell actually comes out fairly optimistic and hints at a cut, then I wouldn't kind of put that off the table. So, if it does get above that 2271, then things could get very real very fast.”@ 5:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is the top gainer on the analyst's watchlist today, up 4.61% to the $21 range after breaking above a key resistance level. Cost to borrow for shorts jumped to 53.85% annual rate as shorts returned ~3M shares. The stock is above the super trend indicator meaning algos are now working in favor. With only 64,000 shares available to short, the analyst believes 'shorts' days are numbered.' If Powell's afternoon comments hint at further cuts, the 50-day moving average at $22.71 could be tested.
Key arguments
- Most green on watchlist today, up 4.61% — broke above key resistance as predicted
- Shorts cost to borrow jumped to 53.85% annual — makes shorting increasingly expensive
- Only 64,000 shares available to short — short supply constraining new short positions
- Above super trend indicator — algorithmic trading now working in Lucid's favor
- PS ratio of 6.5 vs Rivian at 3.4 — Lucid at a discount; Wall Street doesn't believe 18K guidance
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Still no news from Lucid to justify the move beyond market sentiment
- Powell's afternoon comments could flip the trade entirely
The call
- Date said
- Sep 17, 2025
- Deadline
- Sep 17, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $20.36
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $20.36
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $22.71. Price: $20.36.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $22.71. Price: $20.36.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.