TSLABullunverifiable
Randy Kirk“I say Tesla all time high by the end of the year. I've been saying that but I don't know what's going to happen when I trade.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe hosts see strong underlying demand signals for Tesla (record China production, sold-out US inventory, Cybertruck sold out into next year) and view the current stock price as below what they consider fair value. They also see near-term positive catalysts in the Cyber Cab rollout, a potential shareholder-meeting merger announcement, and unadvertised FSD demand, which make them reluctant to cap upside by selling covered calls.
Key arguments
- China production hit a record 95K in July, putting the quarter near 300K units
- US inventory is essentially sold out and Cybertruck is sold out until next year after a price increase
- Cyber Cab robotaxi service in Austin is becoming more usable with shorter wait times and cheap rides, seen as a positive real-world signal
- FSD (not the vehicle) is viewed as the real product and is under-marketed relative to its safety benefits
- Upcoming catalysts (Cyber Cab event, shareholder meeting, possible merger news) create near-term risk/reward that argues against selling covered calls
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Daily chart momentum suggests a near-term pullback before further upside
- Uncertainty remains about whether a merger will actually be announced at the shareholder meeting
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Inventory reduction may be necessary to achieve production targets
- Cyber Cab event expectations are speculative
- Analysis based on partial production data and fan reports rather than official guidance
- Weather and seasonal factors acknowledged as variables
The call
- Date said
- Aug 26, 2026
- Timeframe
- by the end of the year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Framed as a fun recurring call rather than a rigorous forecast, immediately hedged with 'I don't know what's going to happen'.
Source
Announcing the Louisiana Purchase 2.0
Said on Aug 26, 2026Open on YouTube ↗