TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“there is a 95% chance it happens by June 2026 any in any point in time, which is more that's all we need. Once that happens, the stock goes to probably 1,000 bucks.”@ 16:25 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla will transform into an AI/robotics company with robotaxi working between June 2025 and June 2026 at 95% probability, leading to a $1,000 share price; June 2025 launch has only 30% probability of flawless execution and could produce significant short-term drawdown.
Key arguments
- 30% probability June 2025 robotaxi launch matches expectations flawlessly.
- 95% probability robotaxi works by June 2026.
- Path to $1,000 within 12-15 months if either timeline holds.
- EV market becomes a bloodbath 2026-2028, forcing Tesla's pivot to AI/robotics.
- China is structural loser in Trump's global tariff realignment.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla could drop to $150-$200 if June launch disappoints.
- Disaster scenario: FSD delay + affordable car cancellation + China tariff war on Semi.
- Rare earth choke point gives China real leverage against US.
The call
- Date said
- Apr 17, 2025
- Timeframe
- within 12-15 months
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $241.37
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- +72.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
95% probability explicitly assigned to robotaxi working by June 2026 which triggers move to $1,000.