The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$27
Said $2.70· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“it does have a pivot point of $376 Cent so for as long as it is below that then it is anticipated to be between that 260 and 2 79 range”
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Oct 18, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
A new 8K filing shows the PIF affiliate added another 21M shares to the dilution package on top of the 374M already announced. Bank of America's John Murphy — historically one of Lucid's biggest bulls with targets as high as $40-45 in earlier years — issued a $3.40 price target. Separately, CF Garrett put out a $2 target. Short are returning 2.31M shares but this isn't moving the stock significantly. Technicals are 'fully broken' per the speaker. Everything now hinges on Q3 earnings November 7.
Key arguments
- 8K adds 21M more shares to the PIF affiliate purchase on top of existing $374M — continuing dilution
- BoA's John Murphy (55% success rate, former bull) now at $3.40 — significant signal from historical Lucid bull
- CF Garrett at $2 price target — bearish signal from another analyst
- Elliott Wave pivot at $3.76 — below this anticipates $2.60-$2.79 range
- Options show some entities anticipating sub-$1.50 a week after Q3 earnings — implies expected miss
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market has now factored in all the bad news — dilution and low revenue guidance are priced in
- Fear and greed index in greed territory — appetite for risk supports potential recovery
- If Lucid announces a strategic partnership or good Gravity news, value investors could rush in
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Oct 18, 2024, 6:48 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before3.04
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before26.3
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-10-21
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$27 reached on 2024-10-21. Price: $25.50. Return: +3.0%.
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before25.5
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $2.70
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.