LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$27
Said $2.70· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it does have a pivot point of $376 Cent so for as long as it is below that then it is anticipated to be between that 260 and 2 79 range”
Thesis at the time
BearishA new 8K filing shows the PIF affiliate added another 21M shares to the dilution package on top of the 374M already announced. Bank of America's John Murphy — historically one of Lucid's biggest bulls with targets as high as $40-45 in earlier years — issued a $3.40 price target. Separately, CF Garrett put out a $2 target. Short are returning 2.31M shares but this isn't moving the stock significantly. Technicals are 'fully broken' per the speaker. Everything now hinges on Q3 earnings November 7.
Key arguments
- 8K adds 21M more shares to the PIF affiliate purchase on top of existing $374M — continuing dilution
- BoA's John Murphy (55% success rate, former bull) now at $3.40 — significant signal from historical Lucid bull
- CF Garrett at $2 price target — bearish signal from another analyst
- Elliott Wave pivot at $3.76 — below this anticipates $2.60-$2.79 range
- Options show some entities anticipating sub-$1.50 a week after Q3 earnings — implies expected miss
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market has now factored in all the bad news — dilution and low revenue guidance are priced in
- Fear and greed index in greed territory — appetite for risk supports potential recovery
- If Lucid announces a strategic partnership or good Gravity news, value investors could rush in
The call
- Date said
- Oct 18, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $26.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $25.50
- Return
- +3.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$27 reached on 2024-10-21. Price: $25.50. Return: +3.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$27 reached on 2024-10-21. Price: $25.50. Return: +3.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.