TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$850
“The fair future value of Tesla end of 2025 will be roughly $850.”@ 1:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLong-term bull thesis intact with $850 fair future value by end-2025, but near-term technicals and statistics suggest TSLA is on thin ice above $440 and more likely to pull back to around $400 before a renewed push toward $500-600.
Key arguments
- 30% 20-day run plus 480 prior all-time high form dual resistance at 440-480.
- Statistical follow-through turns negative at 50%+ prior burst levels.
- Broader market (NASDAQ/SPX) at all-time highs with VIX creeping up increases correction risk.
- Affordable Model Y launch in October could override the short-term bearish setup.
- Host already scaled back 10% of options near $420 and would scale back more if TSLA reaches 440-460.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A new catalyst (affordable model launch, robo-taxi safety driver removal) could break the technical pattern.
- Historical statistics come from limited samples with stochastic noise.
- Long-term DCF fair value still suggests 100% upside by year-end.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 25, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $423.39
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +6.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 6% progress toward target $850. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 6% progress toward target $850. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host labels this fair future value based on DCF model but separately says stock likely lands at $500-600.