TubeRank
LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityLucid City

Target Price(split-adjusted)

$30

Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)

you see a consensus for it to be roughly around that 250 to $3 range for this week and then three plus going into the next week@ 3:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Thesis at the time

Bullish

Lucid is up 2.41% on a chaotic market day driven by a false tariff-pause rumor that briefly spiked stocks. Since Q1 results, big money has been consistently buying Lucid on the secondary market, and the stock is up 10.66% over the past month while the broader market is in panic mode. Two recent analyst price targets — $5 and $3 — provide upside reference points. The 50-day MA ($254) is the critical breakout level; a close above it for two consecutive days triggers the historical 30% run pattern. Shorts are adding 2.38M shares but are fighting a losing battle against institutional accumulation.

Key arguments

  • Lucid up 10.66% in one month while broader market is in turmoil — shows relative strength and institutional support
  • Multiple secondary market buys outweigh the 3 sells — big money net buying
  • Analyst price targets of $5 and $3 provide clear upside targets above current price
  • 47% bullish options sentiment on a broad down day is notable — real conviction, not just piggyback momentum
  • 50-day MA ($254) breakout would signal 30% historical run
  • Lucid's upcoming earnings Q&A is another opportunity for retail to ask hard questions

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Shorts increasing 2.38M shares shows bears aren't giving up
  • The tariff-pause that spiked markets was fake news — macro uncertainty remains high
  • Revenue of $250.48M consensus and -$0.23 EPS expectations are still deeply in loss territory

The call

Date said
Apr 7, 2025
Deadline
Apr 11, 2025
Price at prediction
$24.50
Confidence
low
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
miss
Resolution price
$25
Return
+2.0%
Notes
Deadline passed. Only 9% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Reference price
$24.50 (anchored at quote date)
Target used
$30(split-adjusted from $3)
Deadline source
Explicit (extracted from quote)
Effective: Apr 11, 2025
Age at resolution
0.1 months(from publish date)
Resolution snapshot
$25 on Apr 11, 2025

Rule that fired

Deadline passed. Only 9% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.00.

Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.