TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$11,000
“I have a firm price target with a 10-year discounted cash flow forward-looking model of roughly 11,000 by 2030.”@ 4:27 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is the best-positioned company to capture the AI singularity via humanoid robots, robotaxi, and FSD, and the current sell-off is a once-in-a-lifetime entry point for long-term investors.
Key arguments
- Tesla has the largest R&D budget and cash pile to invest in embodied AI and humanoid robots.
- Elon Musk retains a startup mentality while running a $100B+ company.
- 10-year DCF model produces a ~$11,000 price target by 2030.
- Optimus launch within 24 months is where Jo believes he has the biggest edge over Wall Street.
- Current price near $262-285 is ridiculously underpriced versus fair value.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short-term price is driven by the broader market and hard to predict.
- Options trading typically loses money; LEAPs require disciplined timing.
- Stock can continue dropping (earnings call, robotaxi delay scenarios).
The call
- Date said
- Mar 4, 2025
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $272.04
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$10,621.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Jo calls this his firm price target from his 10-year DCF model.