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Tesla (TSLA)

The call, on record

TSLA bullish call

Recorded from Curious Pejjy’s public commentary. Review the evidence behind the call and its outcome.
TSLABullNot scored: deadline
Curious PejjyCurious Pejjy
AI-extracted record · moderator reviewed. The quote is source evidence; the structured call and thesis are TubeRank’s interpretation.
Quoted text as recorded“I'm expecting around 1.2 to around 1.21 active FSD subs which would be a percentage of around 13.6 six increase.”@ 7:10 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Our interpretation

Source published
Apr 21, 2026
Timeframe
Q1 of 2026
Extracted deadline
Mar 31, 2026
Interpreted confidence
medium
Specificity
specific

Why this call is unscored

Status
Not scored: deadline
Notes
The recorded deadline precedes the source publication; no future prediction window exists.

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Evidence and source

Tesla Q1-2026 Earnings Will Suck... But This KEY Data Matters MORE.
Published on Apr 21, 2026@ 7:10Open on YouTube

Our summary of the thesis

Bullish

Structured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.

While Q1 2026 earnings will be disappointing, the key metric that matters more is FSD active subscription growth, which shows strong momentum and represents a path to massive recurring revenue. The speaker expects FSD subscriptions to grow from 1.1 million to 1.6 million by end of 2026, generating nearly half a billion in revenue with 80% profit margins.

Key arguments

  • FSD active subscriptions are more important than quarterly earnings
  • Expected growth from 1.1M to 1.2-1.25M FSD subscriptions in Q1 2026
  • Subscription revenue has 80% profit margins and creates exponential growth potential
  • EPS showing first increase in six quarters on annual basis
  • Robotaxi deployment will drive future profits

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Q1 earnings will be disappointing with operating margin of only 1.5%
  • Growth depends on FSD approval in China and Europe
  • Stock trading based on macro factors and geopolitical risks

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • Q1 earnings expected to be weak and miss non-GAAP EPS estimates
  • Energy business is 'lumpy' with Q1 being particularly weak
  • Operating margin described as 'absolutely sad' at 1.5%
  • Profitability improvement dependent on future FSD and robotaxi deployment (Q4 2026 or Q2 2027 timeline)
  • Estimates are author's own projections, not official guidance
  • Historical pattern of missing quarterly earnings for past two years acknowledged

About this record

Reviewed by a moderator

AI-extracted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.

Source published
Apr 21, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC
First recorded by TubeRank
Apr 23, 2026, 7:41 PM UTC
Record last updated
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
Moderator review recorded
Apr 26, 2026, 9:35 AM UTC
Transcript provenance
YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
Recorded analysis processor/source label
claude-sonnet-4-20250514
This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
Extraction pipeline version
v1.0.0
Outcome methodology version
2026-10-06.5
Outcome reason code
deadline_before_publication
Publication is when the video was released; recording is when TubeRank added this call. They are not interchangeable. Legacy records can lack version and observation metadata. Dates are shown in UTC.
Recent record changes 4 shown

  1. Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.4

    After2026-10-06.5

  2. Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.2

    After2026-10-06.4

  3. Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC

    corrected

    Outcome methodology version

    Before2026-10-06.1

    After2026-10-06.2

  4. Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

    deadline before publication

    Outcome methodology version

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2026-10-06.1

    Reference price

    Before392.5

    AfterNot recorded

    Recorded outcome date

    BeforeNot recorded

    After2026-10-06

    Outcome explanation

    BeforeNot recorded

    AfterThe recorded deadline precedes the source publication; no future prediction window exists.

    Outcome reason

    BeforeNot recorded

    AfterDeadline before publication

Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.

Methodology and limitationsReport a correction
Stored outcome evidence
Stored reference price
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded
Target as extracted
Not recorded
Stated deadline as extracted
Mar 31, 2026
Recorded outcome date
Oct 6, 2026
Outcome price observation
Not recorded
Not recorded · provider not recorded

Stored explanation

The recorded deadline precedes the source publication; no future prediction window exists.

Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.

Why we interpreted the confidence this way

Specific numerical prediction with reasoning about SNX sales and luxury package adoption

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