LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$34.40
Said $3.44· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“344 is going be that next strong Target so very wide Gap but then again that's also because Lucid has gone up very fast in a short time period”@ 7:58 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker previews a holiday-shortened bullish week, noting the government shutdown resolution as a minor positive tailwind. Shorts are expected to try to bring Lucid below the 100/200-day moving average ($2.91-$2.97) but are unlikely to succeed given the current positive momentum. A gamma squeeze is possible from the large open interest at the $3 strike as market makers must cover in-the-money call options. The speaker sees Lucid working through $3.44 as the near-term target.
Key arguments
- Government shutdown resolution removes minor market uncertainty
- Lucid is above super trend — algorithmic trading working in its favor
- 8,000 at $2.00, 15,000 at $2.50, 34,000 at $3.00 open interest — market makers may need to buy stock to cover, causing gamma squeeze
- Closing above $3 triggers ~5.5M shares needing market maker coverage
- Breaking above 50-day moving average historically results in ~40% average gain
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts will likely target bringing stock below 100/200-day moving average support at $2.91-$2.97
- Low volume holiday week could amplify short-seller impact
- No actual news expected this week — purely technical driven
The call
- Date said
- Dec 22, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 27, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $31
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $32
- Return
- +3.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 29% progress toward target $34.4. Price: $32.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 29% progress toward target $34.4. Price: $32.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.