TubeRank
TSLABullunverifiable
Mark SpiegelMark Spiegel
“I think when Tesla reports the current quarterly results they will likely be profitable for this quarter and for the last four quarters so spiegel statement here won't age very well starting in about two weeks then by the end of the year I think Tesla will be quite profitable”@ 5:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

The YouTuber strongly defends Tesla against short sellers, arguing that Tesla is becoming profitable with leverage after reaching break-even, has strong delivery growth despite pandemic disruptions, and will benefit from the Model Y launch and China factory production. They believe Tesla will achieve record deliveries and profits in Q3/Q4 2020.

Key arguments

  • Tesla short interest has decreased 60% since mid-2019 as shorts cover positions
  • Tesla was only down 5% in deliveries during pandemic while other automakers saw 30% drops
  • Tesla beat delivery expectations by 25% despite global disruptions
  • Giga Shanghai will contribute 30% increase to Tesla deliveries in 2020
  • Tesla has achieved profitability and will gain leverage on each additional delivery
  • Model Y launch targets the profitable SUV/crossover market segment

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • Revenue growth has slowed compared to 2017-2018 doubling
  • Tesla had to cut prices on Model 3
  • Legacy automakers can subsidize EV losses with ICE profits

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • The video presents the perspective of short sellers but does not endorse their views
  • The host criticizes short sellers for spreading negative rumors to profit from stock decline
  • Short selling carries unlimited loss potential
  • Past short seller predictions have been wrong (shorts recommended avoiding Tesla at $200, stock reached $1,400)

The call

Date said
Jul 9, 2020
Timeframe
by the end of the year
Deadline
Dec 31, 2020
Price at prediction
$92.95
Confidence
medium
Specificity
vague

How it resolved

Status
unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Reference price
$92.95 (anchored at quote date)
Target used
—
Deadline source
Explicit (extracted from quote)
Effective: Dec 31, 2020
Age at resolution
74.5 months(from publish date)

Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.

Confidence Reasoning

Uses hedge language 'I think' and 'likely' but shows conviction about profitability trend

Source

Tesla Short Sellers Gordon Johnson and Mark Spiegel Take Aim at Elon Musk
Said on Jul 9, 2020@ 5:12Open on YouTube ↗
View full video analysisView YouTuber profile