TSLABullpending
Meet KevinTarget Price
$775
“The bull case for Tesla is getting to $775 per share and beyond as soon as possible.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishKevin argues Tesla's robotaxi (Cyber Cab) rollout, full self-driving improvements via hardware 4/5 and better AI compression, and a new margin stack (car sale + FSD subscription + platform/licensing fee) support a bull case price target of $775 per share. He believes concerns about the 'chain problem' and hardware 3 limitations are overblown and not existential, while the real gating factor is how fast Tesla can compress edge-case validation to scale robotaxis across new cities.
Key arguments
- Cyber Cab will use superior hardware (4 plus, more RAM/compute) that solves the 'chain problem' via occupancy networks, temporal context, and skip connections.
- Tesla will earn multiple margin streams: car sale margin, FSD subscription margin (~90%+), and a platform/licensing fee (~6%) similar to a franchise model.
- Once Tesla proves it can expand robotaxi service to new cities in 30-90 days instead of ~436 days like Austin, that is when 'you need to get excited about Tesla stock' because real scale begins.
- Tesla is losing US EV market share more slowly (-16% YoY) than the broader EV market (-30% YoY) as legacy automakers retreat, leaving Tesla as the dominant EV/FSD option.
- If Tesla gets ride cost under $1/mile, Waymo becomes too expensive to compete because its model isn't as scalable.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Hardware 3 vehicles will eventually be left behind by newer hardware, which will disappoint some existing owners and could trigger lawsuits.
- The business remains interest-rate sensitive even at scale because of vehicle financing costs.
- Arc Invest's claim of a 90% reduction in manufacturing line length was inaccurate; the real current figure is 50%, with 90% being an aspirational future target.
- Individual owners will likely not be able to put personal (non-Cyber Cab) cars into the robotaxi fleet, contradicting earlier investor expectations.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Hardware 3 limitations require computational upgrades to implement solutions
- Full Self-Driving deployment timeline uncertain
- Roadster launch timing not specified
- Depends on successful execution of multiple technical solutions simultaneously
The call
- Date said
- Sep 13, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $365.44
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$396.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
He asserts a specific target as his own modeled bull case and reiterates it later as 'my numbers for Tesla bullcase,' showing personal conviction, but there's no explicit timeframe and some hedging around scaling being uncertain.
Source
They're Wrong about Tesla Stock | Going to $775 Target.
Said on Sep 13, 2026Open on YouTube ↗