LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30.20
Said $3.02· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“Elliot wave technicals does project as long as it is able to stay above this pivot point. It is anticipated to hit that 302”@ 5:52 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid's Geneva Open partnership is the first major non-Saudi, non-North American marketing push, and the speaker believes it presages a tennis-related brand ambassador announcement. Q1 13Fs show major institutions (Goldman Sachs, de Shaw +62%, Citadel increasing calls +28.4%) buying Lucid, with dark pool showing a large block purchase. Elliott Wave technicals project $3.02 as the next target, and the stock closed above the 200-day MA for the first time in a while.
Key arguments
- Geneva Open partnership is unprecedented European marketing expansion for Lucid
- Speaker infers Novak Djokovic or another tennis star will be brand ambassador given timing
- Citadel reduced puts 38.57%, increased calls 28.41%, increased common stock — bullish shift
- de Shaw increased common stock 62%; Goldman increased 88.82%
- Dark pool: large block buy (~2.3M shares in duplicate orders by same entity)
- Elliott Wave targets $3.02 next; then $3.50-$3.60
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock is technically overbought
- Negative Michigan consumer sentiment data came in lower than forecast
The call
- Date said
- May 16, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $31.20
- Return
- +9.9%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30.2 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +9.9%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30.2 reached on 2025-07-17. Price: $31.20. Return: +9.9%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.