TSLABullexpired
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$10,000
“this multi-trillion opportunity for Tesla's margin that could catapult the stock towards 10,000 or will catapult the stock towards 10,000 when it actually happens.”@ 0:46 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThree simultaneous wins - federal FSD framework, affordable Model Y launch, and tariff exemption via 85% domestic content - structurally lift Tesla's margins, TAM, and political moat, supporting a $10,000+ long-term target.
Key arguments
- Federal FSD regulatory framework under Sean Duffy opens nationwide robotaxi deployment by 2027-2028.
- Affordable Model Y at $25-28K triples the addressable US car market from 20% to 60%.
- 85% domestic content rule effectively zeroes Tesla tariffs while hitting Ford Mach-E, Hyundai, and others.
- Existing Tesla factories can scale to 3M cars with no additional capex.
- Elon's Trump access directly enabled wins #1 and #3.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla is still oversold vs NASDAQ's beta (down 27% vs 20% expected).
- Federal framework will take 2-4 years to be enforceable.
The call
- Date said
- Apr 30, 2025
- Timeframe
- when federal FSD framework lands
- Price at prediction
- $282.16
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $381.63
- Return
- +35.3%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $381.63.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $381.63.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional long-term target tied to regulatory framework rollout.