ADBEBearunverifiable
Financial Education“It's just a stock that is stuck at low valuations.”
Thesis at the time
BearishJeremy sold out of Adobe, arguing that despite consistently solid earnings, persistent AI-disruption narratives will keep the stock's valuation multiple structurally depressed, making it hard to make significant money in the stock long-term.
Key arguments
- Operating expenses growing faster than gross profit and revenue
- Market perception of AI disruption risk keeps forward P/E compressed to a 9-15 range long-term
- Company can't 'dispel' the disruption narrative even with solid reports
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Company still puts up 'solid numbers' quarter after quarter
- Buybacks help boost diluted EPS growth
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator emphasizes personal portfolio positions and past performance
- Real estate market commentary acknowledges current headwinds with rising mortgage rates
- Creator mentions uncertainty about future direction of specific stocks (e.g., 'where that stock's going from here')
- Video focuses on personal investment decisions rather than universal recommendations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 11, 2026
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear bearish conviction expressed via personal action (sold the stock) and repeated certainty language ('it's going to constantly be fed out there'), but no specific price target given.
Source
My STOCK Just went Insane‼️
Said on Sep 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗