My STOCK Just went Insane‼️
Overall Thesis
The creator shares portfolio updates on strong performers like ELF and discusses market movements across various stocks while evaluating whether to hold, sell, or buy more of his positions.
Narratives
Jeremy notes Celsius is down significantly and jokes it should be called 'the poorest' rather than 'the wealthiest,' referencing the stock trading around $26.
Key Arguments
- Stock price down to $26
Jeremy notes Cheesecake Factory was also down on the day as evidence of a broad market pullback, with no further thesis given.
Key Arguments
- Stock down on the day
Jeremy notes Revolve was up about 5% on the day, one of the stronger small-cap movers in an otherwise down market.
Key Arguments
- Stock up about 5% on the day
Jeremy expresses mild surprise that Nike was up on a day when the broader market was mostly down, without further analysis.
Key Arguments
- Stock up on the day despite broad market weakness
Jeremy sold out of Adobe, arguing that despite consistently solid earnings, persistent AI-disruption narratives will keep the stock's valuation multiple structurally depressed, making it hard to make significant money in the stock long-term.
Key Arguments
- Operating expenses growing faster than gross profit and revenue
- Market perception of AI disruption risk keeps forward P/E compressed to a 9-15 range long-term
- Company can't 'dispel' the disruption narrative even with solid reports
Predictions (1)
Jeremy mentions AMD was down about 3.3% on the day as part of a broader market pullback, without further analysis.
Key Arguments
- Stock down 3.3% on the day
Jeremy highlights Fubo as one of the small-cap stocks that moved up nicely on a day when most of the market was down.
Key Arguments
- Stock up about 6.5% on the day
Jeremy frames ELF as a long-term compounder driven by the strength of its three brands (e.l.f., Rhode, Naturium), expanding retail distribution, and future margin expansion. He lays out both a base case and bull case price target for 2030 based on his own revenue and margin projections.
Key Arguments
- Brand strength allows e.l.f. to launch new categories like hair care successfully
- Rhode is described as the hottest brand in beauty with exclusivity driving demand
- Naturium is scaling in body wash
- Multiple growth levers: pricing, velocity, new categories, margin expansion
- Company only $5B market cap versus L'Oreal's $232B, implying long runway
Jeremy views RH as a beaten-down cyclical stock that reported a mixed quarter but is showing early signs of financial discipline (falling CapEx, rebuilding cash balance). He plans to start and scale a position over the next 6-9 months, believing the stock offers an attractive long-term return after an 80% five-year decline.
Key Arguments
- Cash balance building from $41M to $125M this year
- CapEx guided down significantly from 2026 to 2027
- Best time to buy a cyclical stock is when 'everything's trash'
- Stock down 80% over the past 5 years creates opportunity
Predictions (1)
Jeremy gives Oracle's quarter an A- grade citing strong revenue and profit growth, but flags a serious and worsening balance sheet/debt problem with rapidly rising interest expense. He says he'd consider buying only a small position due to this risk.
Key Arguments
- Revenue up 30% constant currency, operating income up 57%, net income up 63%
- Interest expense up 55% YoY and now 8% of revenue
- Company has a 'major debt problem' that is getting worse
- CDS market signals are not favorable for Oracle credit
Predictions (1)
Jeremy briefly notes Honest has been on a strong run and expects it could finish the year in a higher price range.
Key Arguments
- Stock 'has been on a run'
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Creator emphasizes personal portfolio positions and past performance
- Real estate market commentary acknowledges current headwinds with rising mortgage rates
- Creator mentions uncertainty about future direction of specific stocks (e.g., 'where that stock's going from here')
- Video focuses on personal investment decisions rather than universal recommendations