TSLABullunverifiable
Randy Kirk“I don't expect it to go up 10% or anything, but I would expect it to certainly uh underpin uh its current levels and maybe maybe up a bit.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe hosts believe Tesla is currently undervalued and see multiple upcoming catalysts—the Semi truck event, an anticipated Optimus event, strong Q3 delivery numbers, and SpaceX's Starship-driven data center opportunity—as reasons the stock could move higher. They also discuss a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger of equals, arguing Elon Musk will ultimately decide relative valuations and that current prices for both companies are roughly fair.
Key arguments
- Tesla is currently undervalued relative to its opportunities
- Upcoming catalysts: Semi event, Optimus event, robotaxi expansion
- Strong Q3 delivery trends (low inventory, high demand) support the stock
- SpaceX's data center/Starship economics could indirectly benefit Tesla shareholders given merger speculation
- Elon Musk controls both boards and will ultimately drive the SpaceX-Tesla merger valuation decision
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail investors have reportedly been moving out of Tesla stock recently
- Market may not be crediting Tesla/SpaceX with future gigawatt-scale data center revenue potential
- Uncertainty and nervousness among investors about how a SpaceX-Tesla merger would be structured
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Discussion relies on third-party analyst calculations (Bank of America, Wood McKenzie, Futurum, BNP Paribas) with varying cost estimates
- Comparisons to Starlink success are historical analogies, not guarantees of future performance
- SpaceX is a private company; direct investment exposure is through Tesla stock
- Cost projections depend on achieving rapid reusability milestones not yet fully demonstrated
- Video contains promotional links to options course and Rebellionaire services
The call
- Date said
- Sep 18, 2026
- Timeframe
- around the Semi event
- Price at prediction
- $366.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Mild bullish lean tied to a near-term event, but qualified with 'maybe' and explicit denial of a large move.
Source
The Facts Are Stubborn Things; Undervalued!!
Said on Sep 18, 2026Open on YouTube ↗