LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“last 5 10 15 minutes or whatever else during Power Hour you're going to see shorts light up like fire and try to suppress it below that point”@ 4:43 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid is down 2.36% with very low volume and institutional selling. The speaker explains that market makers are actively suppressing Lucid below $2.50 because there is 177,000 in open interest at that strike — closing above it would force market makers to buy 1.7 million shares in the open market. The speaker predicts shorts will light up during power hour to ensure a close below $2.50. The chart is technically broken and trending downward without a clear catalyst.
Key arguments
- 177,000 open interest at $2.50 strike — market makers are suppressing the stock below this level
- If Lucid closes above $2.50, market makers must buy 1.7M shares from open market — they want to avoid this
- Stochastic shows bearish deviation at oversold levels — technically broken chart
- Institutions are mostly selling — overwhelming bid-side activity in recent days
- Only one secondary market transaction today (above $100K) and it was a buy — not enough to offset selling
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Speaker himself bought small amount at $2.50 limit — sees value at these levels
- Rate cuts and Gravity remain longer-term catalysts
The call
- Date said
- Jun 21, 2024
- Deadline
- Jun 21, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $24.90
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $24.90
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$25 reached. Price: $24.90. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$25 reached. Price: $24.90. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.