TSLABearpending
Michael TylerTarget Price
$250
“30% decline from here would put you down to about 250. That is a possibility.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe YouTuber believes Tesla is not immune to a broader market correction driven by a Fed rate hike, triple witching options expiration, and Middle East conflict, and expects short-term downside before a strong long-term move higher. He plans to buy the dip aggressively at lower price levels while maintaining a long-term bullish target for the stock.
Key arguments
- Tesla will fall alongside the broader market if we get a rate hike and market sell-off, estimated at 30% given its beta.
- He plans to scale into buying Tesla aggressively around $300, $270, and $250 if the stock falls.
- Once the Iran war ends and Fed uncertainty clears, he expects Tesla to resume a strong uptrend into 2027.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A Fed rate hike with open-ended 'data dependent' guidance could trigger a broader market crash.
- Continued escalation of the Iran war and rising oil prices could keep pressuring stocks including Tesla.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK AND NEVER LISTEN TO ANYTHING SAID IN THESE VIDEOS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE'
- Predictions are contingent on multiple uncertain factors (CPI data, Fed decision, geopolitical escalation)
- Historical correlation between triple witching events and crashes is referenced but not guaranteed
- Creator mentions preparing to 'buy the dip' suggesting uncertainty about timing and magnitude of any decline
The call
- Date said
- Sep 9, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $367.81
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$128.90 above target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on a 10-15% market decline scenario tied to a rate hike, but quantified with a specific target and beta-based reasoning.