LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$36.40
Said $3.64· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I myself I see it roughly around probably uh Above This R2 so that $364 but because of everything you might see some volatility it might drag it back down”@ 10:59 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker is cautiously optimistic heading into Lucid's Q4 earnings week, noting the implied move of 13.61% and seeing the Gravity launch and production targets as key drivers. Strong future guidance — ideally 25,000+ production and Gravity specifics — is the critical requirement to break the historical pattern of 90% post-earnings declines. Options bulls are targeting $4-$4.50 for the week.
Key arguments
- Implied earnings move of 13.61% signals high volatility; options bulls targeting $4-$4.50
- Gravity success is foundational — it lays the groundwork for touring variant, midsize platform
- Future guidance is make-or-break; historically Lucid has missed this 90% of the time
- Shorts returning leading into earnings signals possible short squeeze if guidance surprises
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 90% of prior earnings resulted in stock declines due to vague future guidance
- Analyst coverage of Lucid has been declining
The call
- Date said
- Feb 23, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.20
- Return
- -20.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36.4. Price: $22.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $36.4. Price: $22.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.