TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“My prediction is 2029 massive policy measures and that will impact the stocks not harm Tesla or SpaceX.”
Thesis at the time
MixedJoe believes Tesla and SpaceX will largely be spared from the market fallout he expects once AI-doom fears about ASI regulation intensify by 2029, but he acknowledges Tesla could fall sharply to $140 or even $100 in adverse scenarios like a broad market crash. He frames these downside numbers explicitly as conditional 'ifs' rather than his base case.
Key arguments
- He predicts 2029 policy measures targeting frontier AI will not harm Tesla or SpaceX.
- He does not expect a Robotaxi fatal crash or rate hikes to hit Tesla in the near term.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A broader market crash could still drag Tesla down regardless of company-specific factors.
- If everything goes wrong for Tesla specifically, he floats a much lower price.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges this is macro-level discussion, not tactical trading advice
- Host notes audience may find existential AI risk discussion less exciting than immediate trading opportunities
- Concerns presented are based on whistleblower claims, not definitive evidence
- Host frames this as a conversation to explore implications rather than making definitive claims
The call
- Date said
- Sep 10, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2029
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2029
- Price at prediction
- $363.56
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as a firm 'prediction' with a specific timeframe, though it lacks a price target and is embedded in a larger speculative thesis about AI regulation.
Source
How DOOMERS Will CHANGE SpaceX and AGI
Said on Sep 10, 2026Open on YouTube ↗