LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20.75
Said $2.08· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel that we will be kind of between this S1 and this S2. to between 205 and 210 and that would largely be because of just what's happening kind of in the Middle East”@ 6:50 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid's technicals are weak (below all key moving averages) but short-term volatility is dominated by macro events including Middle East tensions and Fed speakers. The speaker sees limited upside unless Lucid releases operational news, and anticipates a dip to the $205–$210 range in the near term.
Key arguments
- Lucid is trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, indicating poor technicals
- Geopolitical risk from US strikes on Iran is dampening risk appetite across markets
- High short interest (~30.74% of float) is a headwind but cost-to-borrow rising could create a natural deterrent
- Lucid benefits when it releases news, as algorithmic trading picks up on it and pushes price higher
- Without news, Lucid is at the mercy of macro forces and algorithmic selling
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid is holding up relatively well compared to other growth stocks given macro headwinds
The call
- Date said
- Jun 22, 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 27, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.20
- Return
- +1.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 47% progress toward target $20.75. Price: $21.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 47% progress toward target $20.75. Price: $21.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.