LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$50
Said $5· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if they actually do have some good other announcements such as various other partnerships, then yeah, realistically, I do feel post earnings it could be around that $5 range”@ 9:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishWith 70,000 units of secured demand (50K Saudi + 20K Uber), Lucid has a built-in growth floor of 10-15% annually even with zero organic customers. Tesla earnings are a win-win scenario due to Uber deal providing independent demand. A gamma squeeze is possible with 50,000 open interest at the $3 strike requiring ~9M shares of market maker coverage.
Key arguments
- 70,000 units of secured demand (50K Saudi government + 20K Uber) provides floor on growth regardless of organic sales
- Tesla earnings are a win-win: good guidance lifts EVs broadly, bad guidance offset by Uber's independent demand
- Gamma squeeze possible: ~9M shares of market maker coverage needed if Lucid stays above $3
- Options consensus for week of earnings: above $4, vs bears expecting sub-$2
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst consensus of $2.92 implies ~4% downside from current levels
- Bank of America $1 sell target and Morgan Stanley $3 hold remain on the books
- $5 pre-earnings is dismissed as unrealistic without additional news from Lucid
The call
- Date said
- Jul 20, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 10, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.90
- Return
- -22.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $21.90.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $50. Price: $21.90.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.