The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“someone is selling calls and so that does mean that they are anticipating for it to be sub 250 by January 16th 2026”@ 6:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Oct 25, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- Jan 16, 2026
- Stored reference price
- $25
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Already met when said
- Notes
- The target was already satisfied at the reference price or lies opposite the stated direction. Instrument, split basis and claim semantics need review.
Email me when LCID calls resolve
When a tracked LCID call is scored — hit, miss or partial — we’ll email you the result. No account needed.
Used only for these updates. Privacy
Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
Shorts are increasing to 19.75% of float and unusually a broker has a negative cost-to-borrow minimum — meaning they are paying people to short Lucid. Options flow is heavily bearish with big money betting sub-$2.50 through January 2026. Technicals look "absolutely horrific" per the speaker. The only near-term hope is Q3 earnings where if Lucid provides strong guidance like Tesla did (which drove a 25%+ move), there could be a recovery.
Key arguments
- A broker is paying people to short Lucid (cost-to-borrow minimum is negative) — unprecedented manipulation signal
- 19.75% of float shorted, 1.54M shares increasing
- Options flow heavily bearish: 59% of options are bearish, big money betting sub-$2.50 through Jan 2026
- Hamburg studio opening shows continued Europe expansion
- Q3 earnings on Nov 7 is key catalyst — Tesla went up 25%+ on strong guidance, Lucid could do the same
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No news today — random spike linked to dilution conversion price of $2.59
- Lucid needs to focus on production volume over technology to reach profitability faster
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Oct 25, 2024, 7:41 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- target_wrong_side
Recent record changes 5 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:45 AM UTC
target wrong side
- Reference price
BeforeNot recorded
After25
- Reference observation time
BeforeNot recorded
After2024-10-24T23:59:59.999+00:00
- Reference price source
BeforeNot recorded
Afteryahoo_daily
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.
AfterThe target was already satisfied at the reference price or lies opposite the stated direction. Instrument, split basis and claim semantics need review.
- Outcome reason
BeforeMissing reference price
AfterTarget wrong side
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
missing reference price
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before2.4
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before25
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-10-29
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$25 reached on 2024-10-29. Price: $24.40. Return: +2.4%.
AfterNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.
- Outcome price
Before24.4
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterMissing reference price
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 6 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- $25
- Oct 24, 2024, 11:59 PM UTC · yahoo_daily
- Target as extracted
- $2.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Jan 16, 2026
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The target was already satisfied at the reference price or lies opposite the stated direction. Instrument, split basis and claim semantics need review.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.