LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“someone is selling calls and so that does mean that they are anticipating for it to be sub 250 by January 16th 2026”@ 6:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishShorts are increasing to 19.75% of float and unusually a broker has a negative cost-to-borrow minimum — meaning they are paying people to short Lucid. Options flow is heavily bearish with big money betting sub-$2.50 through January 2026. Technicals look "absolutely horrific" per the speaker. The only near-term hope is Q3 earnings where if Lucid provides strong guidance like Tesla did (which drove a 25%+ move), there could be a recovery.
Key arguments
- A broker is paying people to short Lucid (cost-to-borrow minimum is negative) — unprecedented manipulation signal
- 19.75% of float shorted, 1.54M shares increasing
- Options flow heavily bearish: 59% of options are bearish, big money betting sub-$2.50 through Jan 2026
- Hamburg studio opening shows continued Europe expansion
- Q3 earnings on Nov 7 is key catalyst — Tesla went up 25%+ on strong guidance, Lucid could do the same
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No news today — random spike linked to dilution conversion price of $2.59
- Lucid needs to focus on production volume over technology to reach profitability faster
The call
- Date said
- Oct 25, 2024
- Deadline
- Jan 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $25
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $24.40
- Return
- +2.4%
- Notes
- Target ≤$25 reached on 2024-10-29. Price: $24.40. Return: +2.4%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$25 reached on 2024-10-29. Price: $24.40. Return: +2.4%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.