LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“5,000 was purchased today for December 20th expiry date at that $3 strike price so like I said it's uh I think just people know that something is going to cause lcid to really push higher”@ 4:43 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedGravity production began but was announced only via a social media retweet rather than an official press release or SEC filing, preventing algorithmic pickup of the news. Shorts increased by 3.85 million shares to suppress the move, and Lucid was down 0.48%. However, after-hours buying is strong and options show growing $3 consensus, suggesting the missed marketing opportunity may still eventually resolve bullishly.
Key arguments
- Gravity production officially underway — a major long-awaited milestone
- After-hours buying is strong despite the red session
- 61% of options being done today are optimistic; $3 consensus is building
- Big money patiently waiting for confirmation of Gravity production is now getting it
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Gravity production announcement made via social media retweet only — no official press release or SEC filing
- Shorts increased net 3.85M shares during the day
- Management's poor marketing continues to be a major concern
The call
- Date said
- Dec 5, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 20, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $20.90
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +44.5%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +44.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30 reached on 2024-12-20. Price: $30.20. Return: +44.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.