LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25.70
Said $2.57· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do see best case scenario us possibly running up to this these uh kind of resistance points right here. So the 258 257 given just the fear in the market unless something does substantially change such as tariffs um I feel like it will be most likely settling around there.”@ 8:45 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker argues the week ahead is setup-positive for Lucid: he believes Trump's tariff threats are likely to be negotiated down (unpopular opinion), macro data (JOLTS, NFP, PCE, Powell) could surprise positively, and institutional Q1 rebalancing will add buying pressure to underperforming stocks like Lucid. Shorts are not expected to cover, but at 23.46% short interest, the stock is primed for a short squeeze catalyst. The speaker sees best-case scenario as reaching the 50/100-day moving averages at $257-258.
Key arguments
- Speaker believes tariffs will be negotiated down, which would trigger a broad market rally and benefit Lucid
- Q1 end rebalancing will add institutional buying to Lucid given its underperformance vs the broader market
- Macro data this week (JOLTS, NFP, PCE, Powell speech) could provide positive surprises
- Lucid's dual AMP-1/AMP-2 structure benefits under both tariff and no-tariff scenarios
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Fear and greed index at 22 — risk appetite is depressed
- No new analyst ratings from the March 27 event, suggesting analysts were underwhelmed
The call
- Date said
- Mar 30, 2025
- Deadline
- Apr 4, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.80
- Return
- -5.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25.7. Price: $22.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $25.7. Price: $22.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.