TSLABullmiss
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$575
“my price target is 575 in this year. And I do think we're going to hit that.”@ 17:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for explosive growth through 2032 driven by robotaxis, humanoid bots, and energy storage scaling. The YouTuber expects massive revenue growth from $101B in 2025 to nearly $700B by 2032, with operating margins expanding from 7% to 30%.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi business will generate $200B revenue and $73B profits by 2032
- Humanoid bot production scaling to 4 million units by 2032 at $20k each
- Energy business growing to $74B revenue with 28% margins
- FSD adoption increasing vehicle margins significantly
- Conservative vehicle delivery estimates still show massive growth
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- High current PE ratio may not be justified by near-term earnings
- Market crashes or geopolitical events could disrupt timeline
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator describes themselves as 'a conservative guy' with conservative modeling assumptions
- Projections extend to 2032 with multiple speculative variables
- FSD revenue modeling methodology differs from historical approaches due to Tesla's current reporting structure
- Delivery projections (5.7M by 2030) are intentionally conservative estimates
The call
- Date said
- Sep 28, 2025
- Timeframe
- by end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $443.21
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +12.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 28% progress toward target $575. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 28% progress toward target $575. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong conviction with specific price and timeframe, personal stake implied