TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$6,394
“I think we can say it's more likely than not that we hit 6,394 adjusted share price adjusted uh for splits.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishA 1,000-share Tesla position held from Christmas 2025 will be worth around $6.3 million by Christmas 2030, driven by robotaxi and Optimus exploding from ~$13B EBITDA today to $112B by 2029. The speaker's model pegs fair value at $575 today (vs ~$490 market), $1,033 by end of 2026, and $6,394 per share by 2030.
Key arguments
- Robotaxi EBITDA scales explosively from 2027 onward, surpassing the core auto business by 2028
- Optimus contributes meaningfully from 2028-2029 with trillions of dollars of potential margin addressable
- Total EBITDA projected at ~$112B in 2029 vs ~$13.5B in 2025 — an ~8x increase
- 2-year forward PE at the 2030 $6,394 price is only 22x — cheap relative to where the growth S-curve still sits in 2030
- Unmodeled upside: Tesla becomes the primary AI chip supplier to SpaceX's space-based AI data centers
- Speaker's own Pioneer Alpha strategy (mostly TSLA options + leverage) up 50.99% in 2025 vs the stock up 19.69%
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Fair value is the speaker's model, not a guaranteed market outcome
- Speaker shifted his original $10K target to 2031 rather than 2030, getting 'a little more conservative on some of the scaling'
The call
- Date said
- Dec 24, 2025
- Timeframe
- by Christmas 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $485.40
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$6,015.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
'More likely than not' is explicitly probabilistic; 5-year horizon amplifies uncertainty.