TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$500
“If this happens, then Tesla stock will go to all-time highs without a question of a doubt. 500 bucks could even go as high as 600 bucks.”@ 0:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla stock will reach all-time highs driven by EU FSD approval and explosive sales growth across US, Europe, and China. FSD software revenue alone could generate $2 billion in earnings, justifying significant stock price appreciation.
Key arguments
- EU FSD approval expected by May 5th or June 30th 2026 with 1.6 million eligible vehicles in Europe
- Tesla dominating US EV market with 54.2% market share in Q1 2026, outselling all competitors combined
- Model Y sold out in Germany for 3.5 months, indicating massive European demand
- FSD software could generate $2 billion in recurring earnings, supporting higher valuation multiples
- Strong production capacity at Giga Shanghai and increasing global demand
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Political reasons could potentially delay EU FSD approval
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator states 'not financial advice' disclaimer
- Approval timeline uncertain (May 5th described as discussion meeting, not vote; actual vote expected June 30th or October 6th)
- Approval contingent on political factors and regulatory decisions across 27 EU member states
- Requires 14 of 27 votes for passage
- Creator acknowledges political risks ('ELO is bad and all this stuff')
- Individual EU member states can approve independently before EU-wide framework
The call
- Date said
- Apr 14, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $364.20
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$121.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Uses definitive language 'without a question of a doubt' and 'will go', shows personal conviction with 'I've been buying every single day'