TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I think Tesla will succeed in two principal markets that make the car business look small by comparison and one is the transportation as a service business.”
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker frames Tesla as a long-term, high-risk/high-reward bet on Elon Musk's engineering-driven, founder-led vision rather than a conventional car company. He believes Tesla's real value will come from transportation-as-a-service (robotaxi) and especially the Optimus humanoid robot platform, which he thinks could become a dominant consumer ecosystem, though these outcomes are years away and require patience through a period of heavy investment with no immediate returns.
Key arguments
- Tesla is an engineering and founder-driven company that shouldn't be judged like a normal automaker.
- Transportation-as-a-service and Optimus are the two markets that will make the car business look small by comparison.
- Optimus and a digital ecosystem (tied to SpaceX's 'Star Mind') could create an unassailable moat and become one of the largest consumer products ever.
- Tesla and SpaceX may eventually merge, largely because of the strategic importance of Optimus.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Big capital investments are 'scary to some' and don't show immediate returns, which is discouraging.
- Disruptive, founder-led companies like this can also produce the worst losses if they fail.
- Optimus has been publicly quiet, leading some to worry progress has stalled.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- "I'm not here to give anyone advice on how to invest"
- Market disruptors have worst gains if they don't succeed
- Currently in a "waiting through the swamp period" with no immediate returns
- Acknowledges the stock has been tanking due to drama spooking investors
- Recognizes Elon Musk has "blind sides"
The call
- Date said
- Sep 12, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $365.44
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker expresses clear personal conviction ('I think Tesla will succeed') but gives no price target or firm date, and frames it as a long-term thesis with acknowledged uncertainty.
Source
If You're A LONG-TERM Tesla Investor, TAKE NOTE!
Said on Sep 12, 2026Open on YouTube ↗