The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$17
Said $1.70· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“in my opinion I think on the bare Case by the end of the year Lucid could be roughly around the $160 to $180 range”@ 8:09 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jun 23, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Stored reference price
- $24.90
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Direction-adjusted price move
- -21.3%
- Notes
- The full target was not reached in 133 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $30.20; 0% of the distance toward $17. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.
A comparison of price observations, not a trading return. Excludes fees, dividends, spread and execution costs.
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Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker provides explicit year-end 2024 bull and bear scenarios for LCID. The bull case of ~$4.50 requires rate cuts, 9,000 deliveries met, and a successful Gravity launch. The bear case of $1.60-$1.80 reflects continued dilution, demand weakness, and a broader market pullback. The speaker notes the market is currently valuing Lucid more like Ferrari (low-volume, high-margin PS ratio) than Tesla, meaning production ramp-ups won't necessarily increase the stock price as expected.
Key arguments
- Market assigns Ferrari-like PS multiple to Lucid (current 9.3x, future 6.8x) — production ramp won't automatically boost stock
- Dilution to continue until profitability (~2027-2028 with midsize SUV) — major headwind for stock
- Rate cut probability at 59.5% for September — key bull trigger
- 9,000 deliveries by year-end and Gravity launch are the two primary bull catalysts
- Broad money market shift (~$6T sitting idle) has not yet occurred — could be the game changer
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail targets of $10-$25 by year-end are unrealistic — even bull case is modest at $4.50
- A broader market pullback combined with demand weakness could send LCID to all-time lows
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jun 23, 2024, 2:02 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 19, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:34 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-18.1
- Outcome reason code
- deadline_missed_ohlc
Recent record changes 7 shown
Oct 19, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
deadline missed ohlc
- Evaluation kind
BeforeNot recorded
Aftertouch
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-15.1
After2026-10-18.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
BeforeNot recorded
After-21.29
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-10-16
After2024-12-31
- Outcome explanation
BeforeThe deadline passed without an observed crossing. Daily closes cannot exclude an intraday touch or prove a boundary held; complete intraday/high-low evidence is required for this claim.
AfterThe full target was not reached in 133 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $30.20; 0% of the distance toward $17. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.
- Outcome observation time
BeforeNot recorded
After2024-12-31T00:00:00+00:00
- Outcome price
BeforeNot recorded
After30.2
- Outcome price source
BeforeNot recorded
Afteryahoo_daily_ohlc
- Outcome reason
BeforeInsufficient price coverage
AfterDeadline missed ohlc
- Outcome status
Beforeunverifiable
Aftermiss
Oct 16, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.5
After2026-10-15.1
- Recorded outcome date
Before2026-10-06
After2026-10-16
Oct 6, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:45 AM UTC
insufficient price coverage
- Reference price
BeforeNot recorded
After24.9
- Reference observation time
BeforeNot recorded
After2024-06-21T23:59:59.999+00:00
- Reference price source
BeforeNot recorded
Afteryahoo_daily
- Outcome explanation
BeforeNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.
AfterThe deadline passed without an observed crossing. Daily closes cannot exclude an intraday touch or prove a boundary held; complete intraday/high-low evidence is required for this claim.
- Outcome reason
BeforeMissing reference price
AfterInsufficient price coverage
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
missing reference price
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before-17.97
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before25.6
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-12-31
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $17. Price: $30.20.
AfterNo valid price observation at or before publication is available (daily reference requires the prior completed session); no reference or return is invented.
- Outcome price
Before30.2
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterMissing reference price
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 8 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- $24.90
- Jun 21, 2024, 11:59 PM UTC · yahoo_daily
- Target as extracted
- $1.70
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Dec 31, 2024
- Recorded outcome date
- Dec 31, 2024
- Outcome price observation
- $30.20
- Dec 31, 2024, 12:00 AM UTC · yahoo_daily_ohlc
Stored explanation
The full target was not reached in 133 completed regular-session high/low bars. No edge-day threshold crossing was present. Final close: $30.20; 0% of the distance toward $17. Extended-hours trades are outside this evidence.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.