Jo Bhakdi“do I believe we reach all-time highs in the next 90 days? Yes.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishQ1 was a Goldilocks moment — auto gross margin 19.2% vs 17.5% est confirms Tesla's manufacturing-powerhouse thesis; delivery growth recovering across Europe/APAC/SA/NA; cyber cab production OFFICIALLY started at Giga Texas (conveyor-belt scale, not hand-build). FSD miles grew 90% while subscriptions grew 16% — existing users driving much more on FSD, an adoption-depth inflection. 25B capex is bullish (low end for Mag 7 ex-Apple) and Tesla is the only Mag 7 doing hard physical manufacturing. Optimus production starts Q2/Q3 — a soft catalyst likely to re-rate the stock.
Key arguments
- Auto gross margin 19.2% vs 17.5% estimate — 170bps beat in an industry under pressure; confirms mfg efficiency lead
- FSD paid miles +90% QoQ while subscriptions only +16% — existing users using FSD more, depth not just breadth
- Cyber cab production officially started; unboxed method = real conveyor-belt scale, not pilots
- $25B capex vs Mag 7 peers at $160-200B — Tesla is underspending relative to scale and only one manufacturing real things
- Robotaxi tracker: fleet grew from 1 city in Jan 2025 to Dallas + Houston this month — 2 new cities added recently
- Energy / batteries / chips / solar — multiple new manufacturing verticals on top of auto, requiring exactly the mfg edge they just demonstrated
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Market reacted negatively to CAPEX — vibes are fragile on AI-capex stories right now
- Robotaxi scaling pace subdued; 12 cities by year-end underwhelms some
- Schizophrenic market is punishing capex plays even when fundamentally bullish
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Capex-bump reaction is sentiment-dependent — currently negative vibes
- Robotaxi scaling commentary was subdued; 12 cities by end-of-year was a mild disappointment
- Dependent on no macro/Iran/Nasdaq implosion
The call
- Date said
- Apr 24, 2026
- Timeframe
- next 90 days
- Deadline
- Jul 23, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $386.42
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Self-characterized as 'a pretty bold statement' but 'high confidence we probably reach alltime highs if the market does not implode'. Backed by Optimus + cyber cab scaling catalysts. Conditional on macro stability.