TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$500
“6 months and here you see here gets a little critical I would say 500 to 600.”@ 17:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's Q3 earnings confirmed the full long-term roadmap with $41B cash, Optimus V3 mass-production demo in Q1 2026, robo-taxi scaling, and cybercab mass production end of 2026, supporting targets of $500-600 by April 2026, $700 by October 2026, and $1,000+ by Q1 2027.
Key arguments
- Tesla has $41 billion in cash and short-term investments, up multiple billion dollars from last quarter.
- Elon confirmed first mass-production Optimus V3 demo in Q1 2026.
- Cybercab mass production preparation projected to start scaling end of 2026.
- Services gross margin is now 10% and energy gross margin is 31%.
- Robo-taxi inflection expected around May 2026 with ~1,500 robo-taxis deployed.
- Chinese supplier leaks suggest 70,000 Optimus units production capacity for 2026.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short-term catalysts all moved to Q1 2026, removing November catalysts.
- EPS came in at 50 cents vs 54 cents expected due to elevated R&D spend.
- Robo-taxi driver removal limited to few vehicles in Austin, less of a surprise.
The call
- Date said
- Oct 23, 2025
- Timeframe
- 6 months (April 2026)
- Deadline
- Apr 23, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $448.98
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $386.42
- Return
- -13.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $386.42.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $386.42.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses 'I would say' and hedges with range; using low end of range.