TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$600
“something that can drive it very rapidly towards 600 and then of course at some point the unsupervised deployment at scale happens probably this year”@ 8:43 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is approaching a major inflection point with Cybercab production starting in April, which could massively derisk the stock. The YouTuber believes Tesla can mitigate risks by selling Cybercabs to investors like Chamath who would deploy them as fleets, providing a relief valve if full-scale robotaxi deployment is delayed.
Key arguments
- Tesla investing $4 billion in Cybercab manufacturing line shows confidence in demand
- Cybercabs don't have steering wheels so Tesla must be confident in FSD readiness
- Selling Cybercabs to investors provides risk mitigation if robotaxi scaling is slower than expected
- Strong investor interest from people like Chamath Palihapitiya who sees positive cash flow in under 2 years
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- FSD may not be ready for full commercial robotaxi deployment by April/May
- Scaling to thousands of robotaxis by year-end may be too aggressive
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty about FSD readiness by April
- Notes that scaled commercial robotaxi operation may not be ready despite manufacturing launch
- Expresses personal doubt ('my gut feeling right now is hm...it doesn't seem likely')
- Recognizes the predicament between first-principles reasoning and practical readiness
- Admits to being 'puzzled by my own reasoning'
The call
- Date said
- Mar 9, 2026
- Timeframe
- rapidly
- Price at prediction
- $398.68
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$221.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Uses hedge words like 'can drive' and 'something that' showing moderate confidence