TSLABearhit
Meet KevinTarget Price
$433
“I suggested that Tesla is probably going to roundtrip this Venezuela pump that it had yesterday and go right back down to 433.”@ 2:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishTesla is expected to roundtrip the Venezuela pump from yesterday and return to 433, which the YouTuber called in their alpha report that morning.
Key arguments
- Venezuela pump was temporary
- Pattern of giving back gains
- Called in morning alpha report
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges uncertainty in Bitcoin direction despite convergence breakout
- Notes pattern of early rally selling in Nasdaq
- Expresses caution due to upcoming catalysts
- Describes Tesla prediction as probabilistic ('probably going to roundtrip')
The call
- Date said
- Jan 6, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $432.96
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $431.41
- Return
- +0.4%
- Notes
- Target ≤$433 reached on 2026-01-07. Price: $431.41. Return: +0.4%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$433 reached on 2026-01-07. Price: $431.41. Return: +0.4%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong conviction with 'probably going to' and later confirmation it was playing out