LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$28.40
Said $2.84· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I think it might actually be fluctuating uh kind of Above This price point... I think it can actually be as high as maybe $284 for this week um that's just my prediction”@ 8:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker previews the week as technically driven, with Tesla earnings being the primary catalyst that could carry Lucid higher or lower. After all the dilution and bad news, the speaker believes the market has now priced in all of Lucid's negatives and bought more shares personally. They don't see a new 52-week low this week, and are cautiously targeting $2.84 by Friday's close. Q3 earnings on November 7 is the next big event for a potential sustained move.
Key arguments
- Market has fully priced in all negative news (revenue miss, dilution) — downside limited near-term
- Tesla earnings key catalyst for all EVs — good guidance could propel Lucid
- Gravity launch remains critical — unlikely Lucid pushes it back given the stakes
- Speaker personally bought more Lucid shares at current levels
- Retail questions to management open October 24 — need to focus on right topics
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- All technicals still bearish — below alma, super trend, 50/100/200-day MAs
- Recent analyst ratings: $3.40, $3.40, and $2 price targets — all below current (implied) price
- Broader market at all-time highs while Lucid near all-time lows
The call
- Date said
- Oct 20, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 25, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $25.50
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25
- Return
- -2.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28.4. Price: $25.00.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $28.4. Price: $25.00.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.