TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$600
“if we get an Optimus reveal, then we go to 600, maybe more.”
Thesis at the time
BullishRandy believes Tesla is undervalued at current levels and expects upside driven by strong export demand, US sell-outs, and future catalysts like robotaxi ramp and an Optimus reveal. He dismisses Goldman Sachs' delivery cut as too pessimistic given the sales data he's seeing.
Key arguments
- US Tesla dealers reportedly sold out with long waits
- Export markets from Shanghai (Southeast Asia, South America, Australia, Canada) are stronger year-over-year
- Retail shareholders remain loyal backers of Musk and Tesla
- Upcoming catalysts (robotaxi ramp, Optimus reveal) could drive the stock materially higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Goldman Sachs cut Q3 and Q4 2026 delivery forecasts citing weaker US, China, and Europe sales data
- Tesla trades at a lofty 174x forward earnings estimate
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Host acknowledges uncertainty about reasons for SpaceX retail selling
- No specific price targets or directional calls made
- Discussion of retail flows is observational rather than predictive
The call
- Date said
- Sep 19, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $366.20
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$221.10 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit conditional ('if') combined with hedge 'maybe more' lowers confidence.
Source
The Specs Are Out
Said on Sep 19, 2026Open on YouTube ↗