TSLABearhit
Traders Helping TradersTarget Price
$390
“my worries are still valid for a potential rejection between 380 to 390”@ 6:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishTesla is not in a bull cycle as monthly BX shows selling pressure and the 33 fair value band is not green. The YouTuber sold all Tesla shares at the end of last month following his systematic rules to avoid catastrophic losses.
Key arguments
- Monthly BX indicator is dark red showing selling pressure
- 33 fair value band is not green, indicating lack of bull cycle conditions
- Price has been trading under daily fair value band since December with rejections at bounces
- Bear structure is in place where bounces tend to be traps
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Red monthly BX doesn't always mean price will crater - it can move sideways
- Genuinely hopes Tesla pushes to all-time highs for viewers' sake
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'I'm never telling anybody what to do'
- Strategy has only 47% win rate (coin toss probability)
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Creator acknowledges they may 'overpay' getting back in after exiting
- Technical indicators can remain red for extended periods without cratering (June, April examples cited)
- Expected bull cycle targets (550-650) did not materialize in previous cycle
- Creator focuses on multi-year cycles, not short-term returns
The call
- Date said
- Apr 14, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $364.20
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $364.20
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$390 reached on 2026-04-15. Price: $364.20. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$390 reached on 2026-04-15. Price: $364.20. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses cautious language 'potential' and 'worries' but provides specific resistance range