LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$14.75
“I did a post on Lucid when it was at 22 or $21 and I said that I do feel realistically it's going to go down to about $1450 to $15. That is where it would be a good buying opportunity. That is exactly how it is playing out.”@ 10:54 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe speaker attributes Lucid's ongoing decline to management failure rather than market conditions. Unlike Rivian which adapted to consumer demand with a $45K midsize, Lucid has been talking about a midsize for two years with no execution. No insiders have ever bought shares, management layoffs continue without solving underlying issues, and dilution is imminent.
Key arguments
- Management refuses to adapt — expecting consumers to conform to Lucid's offering rather than vice versa
- Midsize is still best-case late 2026; Rivian announced and scheduled R2 ($45K) for first half 2026
- No Lucid insider has ever purchased stock (no transaction code P from management)
- Lucid has 2B line of credit they can dip into without announcement, creating dilution risk
- Speaker bought at the $19–$19.50 put strike but believes dilution is coming so is not buying more
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Without the PIF, Lucid would be far worse off
- Lucid has great technology — the product itself is not the issue
The call
- Date said
- Nov 11, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $16.99
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $14.20
- Return
- +16.4%
- Notes
- Target ≤$14.75 reached on 2025-11-14. Price: $14.20. Return: +16.4%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$14.75 reached on 2025-11-14. Price: $14.20. Return: +16.4%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.