LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$14
“Bulls are now feeling that $14 is potentially on the table by the end of this week as well as next week.”@ 4:40 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid surges 4.26% after Mark Winterhoff confirms at the NASDAQ investor conference that production has reached 1,000+ vehicles per week, making the 18k lower-end guidance logically achievable. Gravity deliveries to Europe are beginning Q1 2026. Mark also teases positive partnership announcements at the Q1 investor day. Separately, Eric Bach's defamation lawsuit against Lucid reveals that past production delays were due to Bach's engineering governance failures, not supply chain issues as publicly stated. Options bulls now target $14 by end of week.
Key arguments
- CEO confirms 1,000+ weekly production — 18k target is now mathematically very achievable
- Gravity deliveries to Europe starting year-end and significantly in Q1 2026
- Q1 investor day teased for partnership transparency announcements
- Eric Bach lawsuit reveals internal engineering mismanagement was the real cause of delays, not supply chain
- Options bulls target $14 by end of week/next week
- Market was not expecting 1,000+/week — this exceeded expectations and drove the rally
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Host remains cautious about 'partnership' language — Lucid has teased partnerships many times without delivery
- Post-Powell sell-off in after-hours dampens some of the day's gains
The call
- Date said
- Dec 11, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 19, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $12.83
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $11.82
- Return
- -7.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14. Price: $11.82.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $14. Price: $11.82.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.