LCIDBullhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$28.00
Said $2.80· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“$2.80 that's going to be the next kind of breakout point that you really want to watch for Lucid to get above”@ 7:22 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe decline is attributed to strong PPI and retail sales data dampening rate-cut prospects, which hurts EV sector sentiment. Shorts returned 1.02M shares, suggesting they view today's pullback as sufficient and aren't piling on. Notably, hedge funds held 7.71M Lucid call options at end of Q1, up 54.74%, with total 13F holders at 28.05M (+50.27%) — a meaningful bullish institutional signal despite mixed daily action. The speaker sees the $2.80 200-day MA breakout as the next key milestone.
Key arguments
- Hedge funds held 7.71M call options at end of Q1, up 54.74% — major bullish institutional indicator
- Total 13F Lucid holdings up 50.27% quarter-over-quarter
- Shorts returned 1.02M shares — the sell-off appears technically driven and not justified
- Strong economic data (PPI, retail sales) reduces rate-cut likelihood, hurting EVs temporarily
- $2.80 remains key next resistance level above 100-day MA
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 52% of options today are bearish
- Big money not lining up to buy the dip — institutional transactions skewed to sells
The call
- Date said
- May 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $28.40
- Return
- +5.6%
- Notes
- Target ≥$28 reached on 2025-05-16. Price: $28.40. Return: +5.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$28 reached on 2025-05-16. Price: $28.40. Return: +5.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.