LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$16.90
Said $1.69· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“next target is ultimately $169 based on this. It does have a key pivot of 245.”@ 6:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishShorts added 10.1M shares in a single day as Powell signaled stagflation risk and Trump attacked Fed policy. LCID is in a 'show me' phase — even the most bullish investors are demanding execution before buying. The speaker raises a Polestar merger as a potential future scenario if Lucid fails to ramp sufficiently.
Key arguments
- Shorts added 10.1M shares in one day — 31.82% of free float, approaching all-time high
- Powell signaled stagflation risk — raising rates possible, very negative for rate-sensitive EVs
- New Saudi MoUs have not historically benefited Lucid in any tangible way
- Even bullish investors in 'show me' mode — demanding production ramp evidence
- Elliott wave technicals project next target at $1.69 with key pivot at $2.45
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Short interest approaching all-time high creates squeeze potential
- Micron earnings beat could lift tech/growth stocks including LCID
- GDP data forthcoming could be positive market catalyst
The call
- Date said
- Jun 25, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.40
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $16.79
- Return
- +21.6%
- Notes
- Target ≤$16.9 reached on 2025-09-03. Price: $16.79. Return: +21.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$16.9 reached on 2025-09-03. Price: $16.79. Return: +21.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.