The call, on record
LCID bullish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$45
Said $4.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“on the high end I feel like Lucid could be roughly around that $4.50 range”@ 7:16 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Jun 23, 2024
- Extracted deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: deadline
- Notes
- The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
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Our summary of the thesis
MixedStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The speaker provides explicit year-end 2024 bull and bear scenarios for LCID. The bull case of ~$4.50 requires rate cuts, 9,000 deliveries met, and a successful Gravity launch. The bear case of $1.60-$1.80 reflects continued dilution, demand weakness, and a broader market pullback. The speaker notes the market is currently valuing Lucid more like Ferrari (low-volume, high-margin PS ratio) than Tesla, meaning production ramp-ups won't necessarily increase the stock price as expected.
Key arguments
- Market assigns Ferrari-like PS multiple to Lucid (current 9.3x, future 6.8x) — production ramp won't automatically boost stock
- Dilution to continue until profitability (~2027-2028 with midsize SUV) — major headwind for stock
- Rate cut probability at 59.5% for September — key bull trigger
- 9,000 deliveries by year-end and Gravity launch are the two primary bull catalysts
- Broad money market shift (~$6T sitting idle) has not yet occurred — could be the game changer
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail targets of $10-$25 by year-end are unrealistic — even bull case is modest at $4.50
- A broader market pullback combined with demand weakness could send LCID to all-time lows
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Jun 23, 2024, 2:02 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_stated_deadline
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified stated deadline
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before17.97
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before25.6
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2024-12-31
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeDeadline passed. Only 24% progress toward target $45. Price: $30.20.
AfterThe stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
- Outcome price
Before30.2
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified stated deadline
- Outcome status
Beforemiss
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $4.50
- Stated deadline as extracted
- Dec 31, 2024
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The stored date is not supported by an unambiguous deadline in the source quote. Horizon labels and extracted dates alone cannot establish a promised window.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.