Curious Pejjy“I do think that maybe 10,000 of it is priced in, but what happens when Tesla releases 10,000 of them?”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe host views NHTSA's move to rewrite federal autonomous vehicle safety standards (focusing on performance rather than physical controls like steering wheels/pedals, and de-emphasizing LiDAR requirements) as a major regulatory tailwind for Tesla's Cybercab and robotaxi rollout. He also points to Cybercabs and robotaxis massing in Houston parking lots (100+ vehicles) as evidence of an imminent city-wide launch, and argues the market is not yet pricing in the scale of Tesla's future robotaxi fleet, leaving room for upside as guidance materializes.
Key arguments
- NHTSA is proposing to change 5 major federal vehicle safety standards to accommodate vehicles without steering wheels/pedals, favoring Tesla's Cybercab design
- NHTSA's shift toward performance-based standards (rather than requiring LiDAR) is seen as heavily favoring Tesla's vision-only approach over competitors like Waymo
- Houston robotaxi hub has over 100 Cybercabs and Model Ys staged, suggesting an imminent citywide launch
- He estimates only 10,000-20,000 robotaxis are currently priced into Tesla's stock, not the 1-2 million some claim, implying further upside once guidance is released
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Some argue that with Tesla's PE at 350-360, a large robotaxi expansion is already priced into the stock
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Regulatory changes are still in development and subject to further modifications
- Actual implementation timeline and scope remain uncertain
- Competition from other autonomous vehicle developers (Waymo mentioned) could impact Tesla's advantage
- Safety performance standards still need to be finalized and enforced
The call
- Date said
- Sep 20, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker asserts his own belief about current market pricing of robotaxis but frames future upside conditionally without committing to a specific stock price target himself.