Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$400
“I think as early as next week, we could go back to 400 cuz there's absolutely no reason why not.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishQ1 a Goldilocks earnings: 19.2% auto gross margin (vs 17.5% est) in an industry-wide bloodbath validates manufacturing supremacy; capex jump $20B → $25B is bullish in the AI singularity era — exact same pattern Meta and Amazon went through, both of which fully recovered to all-time highs after their capex-shock selloffs. Optimus production starts July (90 days) which should drive a re-rating to $500. Near-term: $400 'in no time' as the irrational capex selloff reverses.
Key arguments
- Auto gross margin 19.2% vs 17.5% estimate — beating margins while every other auto-maker (BYD, GM, Ford, VW, Toyota peers) is getting slaughtered
- Capex $20B → $25B is bullish: only ~10-15% of Mag-7 peers' capex (Meta $200B, Amazon hundreds of billions) and Tesla is the one Mag-7 actually doing physical manufacturing
- Optimus production starts ~July — a 90-day catalyst
- Cyber Cab production officially rolling at Giga Texas — glossy/production-version units now coming off the line, dozens per day
- Market punishment mirrors Meta + Amazon capex shocks — both fully reversed to all-time highs
- Elon being deliberately less bombastic on robotaxi is a 'dogs that don't bark bite' signal
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Robotaxi scaling milestones were vague
- Tail risk from macro / geopolitical headlines
- Market can stay irrational longer than expected — but put premiums are very low signaling near-term floor
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Tail risk from Putin / Trump / macro headlines
- Robo-taxi scaling commentary was vague — read as Elon being deliberately conservative now
The call
- Date said
- Apr 24, 2026
- Timeframe
- as early as next week
- Deadline
- May 2, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $386.42
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $390.82
- Return
- +1.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 32% progress toward target $400. Price: $390.82.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 32% progress toward target $400. Price: $390.82.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price ($400), specific deadline (next week), explicitly 'making very clear predictions'. Host is sizing positions around it (in-the-money short puts at 380/385 staggered up). Backed by the Meta/Amazon precedent.