LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$45
Said $4.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“looks as though for the foreseeable future in the week ending August the 15th that it will be above 450”@ 4:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid is up 10.46% as part of an orchestrated broad market attack on heavily shorted stocks — a Reddit-style coordinated short squeeze dynamic. Options flow is record-high bullish with 9.59M calls vs 1.27M puts, and the options consensus shows above $4.50 by the week of August 15. A true AMC-style squeeze is possible given the extreme short exposure.
Key arguments
- Coordinated market-wide move targeting heavily shorted stocks lifting Lucid and peers simultaneously
- Options flow: 9.59M calls vs 1.27M puts; 53% bullish — record dollar values
- Bulls consensus: above $3.50 this week, above $4.50 by August 15
- Shorts at peak were adding 15.8M shares but have been covering, now net +181K
- Large dark pool and secondary market institutional buying visible
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stochastic RSI still overbought — first sign of weakness could cause volatility
- Today's Lucid Air supercharger access news is not fundamentally strong enough to justify the move on its own
The call
- Date said
- Jul 22, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $31.30
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.80
- Return
- -30.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $45. Price: $21.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $45. Price: $21.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.