LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$31.50
Said $3.15· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I can honestly see it getting very close to the $3 range... and if it can actually get above that then anticipate 315”
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid delivered a rare triple beat on Q4 earnings (EPS, revenue, production guidance) but the market reacted negatively due to Peter Rawlinson's abrupt departure and the lack of specific Gravity production guidance. The speaker views the selloff as overdone and personally bought 1,000 shares at $2.50, believing the new interim CEO Mark Winterhoff and CFO are better communicators and the long-term story remains intact.
Key arguments
- Triple beat on Q4 earnings: EPS -$0.22 vs -$0.25 forecast, revenue $234M vs $214M estimate, 20,000 production guidance for 2025
- Peter Rawlinson unofficially fired/stepped down; Mark Winterhoff as interim CEO seen as a positive with focus on marketing and production ramp
- Analysts (Adam Jonas $3, John Murphy, Tom) gave bearish post-earnings ratings citing lack of Gravity guidance details
- PIF prospectus allowing share sales spooking market, though speaker sees it as a routine formality
- 75% of Gravity orders from new customers; better-than-expected order intake at $120K+ configured price
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analyst ratings are very negative post-earnings; consensus price target around $2.64
- Gravity production details not provided by management disappointed investors
The call
- Date said
- Feb 26, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.55
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $26.40
- Return
- +17.1%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 43% progress toward target $31.5. Price: $26.40.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 43% progress toward target $31.5. Price: $26.40.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.