The call, on record
LCID bearish call
Target Price(split-adjusted)
$19.30
Said $1.93· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
Quoted text as recorded“if it does break below that 217, anticipate a $1.93 to be that next saving grace. And possibly that's where I might do some additional buys between that $180 and $1.90 range.”@ 9:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Our interpretation
- Source published
- Aug 6, 2025
- Interpreted confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
Why this call is unscored
- Status
- Not scored: condition
- Notes
- The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
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Evidence and source
Our summary of the thesis
BearishStructured interpretation of the video, not a verbatim quotation. Check the source for conditions, emphasis and context.
The stock is down sharply post-earnings with institutions (not just shorts) doing most of the selling. The CEO's awkward Bloomberg interview full of excuses and inability to answer the dilution question was negative. Most concerning is Uber CEO's statement that they may also partner with Tesla for autonomous vehicles, undermining LCID's key Uber partnership narrative.
Key arguments
- Uber CEO explicitly stated Tesla could be a partner — directly undermines Lucid's marquee Uber deal catalyst
- Mark's Bloomberg interview was evasive and awkward — refused to answer dilution question
- Institutions selling on the darkpool — not shorts doing the damage today
- Dilution expected Q3/Q4 — Mark refused to give timeline confirming this
- Analyst ratings now polarized but mostly $1-$3 range with BofA and Baird lowering
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid's convertible note buyback saved $116M in dilution and extended maturity to 2030
- 43% of options in neutral territory — not strongly directional
About this record
Reviewed by a moderatorSubmitted record. A quote, summary and outcome each need their own context. Moderator review does not certify investment performance.
- Source published
- Aug 6, 2025, 9:30 PM UTC
- First recorded by TubeRank
- Apr 20, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC
- Record last updated
- Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
- Moderator review recorded
- Apr 26, 2026, 9:32 AM UTC
- Transcript provenance
- YouTube captions (manual or automatic)
- Recorded analysis processor/source label
- manual_claude_session
- This can identify a workflow rather than an exact AI model version.
- Submission path version
- manual_v1
- Identifies the precomputed submission path. It does not identify an AI model version or imply human authorship.
- Outcome methodology version
- 2026-10-06.5
- Outcome reason code
- unverified_condition
Recent record changes 4 shown
Oct 6, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.4
After2026-10-06.5
Oct 6, 2026, 5:14 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.2
After2026-10-06.4
Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
corrected
- Outcome methodology version
Before2026-10-06.1
After2026-10-06.2
Oct 6, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
unverified condition
- Outcome methodology version
BeforeNot recorded
After2026-10-06.1
- Direction-adjusted price movement (%)
Before19.18
AfterNot recorded
- Reference price
Before21.85
AfterNot recorded
- Recorded outcome date
Before2025-09-02
After2026-10-06
- Outcome explanation
BeforeTarget ≤$19.3 reached on 2025-09-02. Price: $17.66. Return: +19.2%.
AfterThe claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
- Outcome price
Before17.66
AfterNot recorded
- Outcome reason
BeforeNot recorded
AfterUnverified condition
- Outcome status
Beforehit
Afterunverifiable
Showing up to 20 recent changes. The complete feed has 5 recorded events for this call, including its initial entry. Read the full paginated history (JSON); follow nextCursor while hasMore is true.
Stored outcome evidence
- Stored reference price
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
- Target as extracted
- $1.93
- Stated deadline as extracted
- None recorded
- Recorded outcome date
- Oct 6, 2026
- Outcome price observation
- Not recorded
- Not recorded · provider not recorded
Stored explanation
The claim contains a condition. Its trigger has not been verified, so price alone cannot establish an outcome.
Missing timestamps, providers and versions are historical gaps. Stored observations can include daily closes; they do not show every intraday touch or prove an executable trade. Read the methodology.